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Recall election set for Oct. 7
ANALYSIS: Fiscal crisis and voter resentment led to recall

July 25, 2003

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have a network of allies, people they can rely on and work with, and Davis just doesn't have that," said Christensen.

Davis has been left to struggle by himself with a public perception that the state's political and governmental systems are badly broken.

The recall "is more than just three guys, an attitude and a fax machine," said Duf Sundheim, chairman of the California Republican Party.

"I really think the people get what's going on in Sacramento," said Sundheim. "Nobody's really focusing on the issues, nobody's providing leadership. (The recall) is a rejection of the system up there and how dysfunctional it is."

DAVIS' CAMPAIGN TACTICS And some of the public's negative view toward government and politicians can be traced to Davis' successful campaign tactics.

Rather than win over voters to his side, Davis has mastered a long-used tactic of driving away from the polls people who might vote for the other guy.

Last year's election for governor drew 7.7 million voters to the polls -- only 50.6 percent of the state's registered voters and only 36 percent of the state's eligible voters, both record lows.

"This is Davis' tactics coming back to haunt him," said Whalen.

If Davis had run a more positive campaign, rather than focusing on the negatives of his opponent, Republican Bill Simon, maybe turnout would have been higher and Davis' political base wider.

Instead, he helped drive down turnout, which meant a lower number of petition signatures was needed to qualify the recall for the ballot.

Davis won the election, but "he lowered the bar" for recall in California, Whalen said.

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WHY GOV. GRAY DAVIS' DISAPPROVAL RATING HAS SOARED Nov. '98: Gray Davis elected governor of California, easily defeating Republican Dan Lungren.

June '99: Davis signs balanced budget that schools after the state took in $4.2 billion more than it projected.

March '00: Nasdaq tops 5000.

Nov. '00: Internet layoffs for month hit high of 8,789. Tally since December stands at 31,056 jobs pared from 383 companies.

Jan. '01: The first rolling blackouts of California's electricity crisis affect several hundred thousand customers in Northern and Central California. Davis signs emergency order allowing the state Department of Water Resources to buy power as part of a plan to stave off Southern California Edison and PG&E bankruptcies and further blackouts.

March '01

-- The state Public Utilities Commission approves record rate increases of up to 46 percent for SCE and PG&E customers.

-- Davis asks lawmakers to approve spending another $500 million to buy power for SCE, PG&E and SDG&E, bringing the total state money committed to the power purchases to $4.7 billion.

Nov. '01: Davis comes under fire from political opponents and some law- enforcement officials for releasing a federal warning about possible terrorist attacks on the state's bridges.

March '02: Davis forced his chief technology adviser to resign after he admitted meeting an Oracle lobbyist at a bar and accepting a $25,000 check for the governor's campaign while negotiations over an Oracle software contract were taking place.

Sept. '02: After declaring California a world leader in fighting global warming, Davis quietly vetoes $500,000 from the state budget that would have helped implement a landmark bill to reduce greenhouse gases.

Nov. '02: Davis re-elected governor in race against Republican Bill Simon.

April '03: State budget gap estimated at $38 billion.

Source: Chart based on Field Poll data; Chronicle research

E-mail Mark Simon at msimon@sfchronicle.com.



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